Seas to rise dramatically even if greenhouse gases are curbed

WASHINGTON, DC: Just as an oil tanker steaming ahead at full speed cannot stop immediately, so the dramatic rise in sea levels will continue even if the world manages to slash greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2030, experts warned in a study published Monday (Nov 4).

Emissions between 2015, when the Paris climate change accord was thrashed out, and 2030 would be enough to raise levels by 8cm by 2100, according to research by experts based in Germany.

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They would rise by 20cm by 2300 in comparison with the reference period of 1986-2005, according to the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

In total, sea levels can be expected to rise by at least a metre by 2300 in the extremely unlikely event that greenhouse gas emissions fall to zero in the next 11 years.

And that may be a conservative estimate: UN-backed scientists are already predicting an increase in water levels of between 26cm and 77cm by the end of this century alone.

A full quarter of that one-meter rise by 2030 will be due to emissions from China, the United States, the European Union, Russia and India in the preceding 40 years, the authors of the latest report concluded.

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By comparison, oceans rose by around 20cm in the 20th century.

The goal of the study, co-author Alexander Nauels of the Climate Analytics institute in Berlin told AFP, was to show that current emissions will have a clear effect on rising sea levels that will be felt over the next 200 years.

"We all focus on the 21st century," he said, warning that "sometimes that can create the false impression that after the 21st century nothing else will happen."

Sea level rise is due to a number of Read More – Source